MACRO · RATES
Yield spread (10-year minus 2-year)
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield. A negative value means long-term yields are below short-term yields.
Current value0.37 pp-0.05 ppChange from previous observation · as of Oct 14, 2026
Latest value
Published every business day| Current value | 0.37 pp |
|---|---|
| Observation date | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Published | Every business day |
| vs previous observation | -0.05 pp |
| vs 1 month ago | +0.05 pp |
| vs 1 year ago | -0.18 pp |
| Past-year range | 0.20 pp to 0.74 pp |
| Position in range | 31% (0% = 1-year low, 100% = 1-year high) |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity [T10Y2Y], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
What this number measures
Lenders usually ask for more interest the longer they lend, so long-term rates are normally above short-term rates. A positive value means that usual shape still holds.
When the difference falls below zero, the curve is called inverted. In the past, inversions in the US came before some recessions, so it is often quoted, but this single value cannot tell what happens next.
How it is calculated and when it is released
The 10-year constant maturity Treasury yield minus the 2-year constant maturity Treasury yield. It is a difference between two values already in percent, so Jupick writes it in percentage points (pp).
Updated every US bond market business day together with the two underlying series.
What this number does not tell you
- It only shows whether the curve is inverted, not how long that lasts or what it leads to.
- There are several ways to pair long and short maturities. Measured as 10 years against 3 months, the sign can differ in the same period.
- It covers the US Treasury market only.
Common misreadings
- Reading it as a recession warning
Having appeared together in the past is not the same as happening again. Jupick makes no forecast from this value.
- Taking a negative value as an error
This indicator can be negative under normal conditions. A minus sign is not missing data.
- Unit of change
A move from 0.41 pp to 0.55 pp is a widening of 0.14 pp. The value is already a difference, so it is not read as a percent.
※ This explains the definition and past observations of the indicator. It does not forecast future values or market direction.
Other indicators in this group (Interest rates)
This page is information based on public data and is not advice on any stock or financial product. The indicators summarize current and past facts and do not forecast the future.